Two specialized reports combining intelligence-community rigor with actionable business insights for high-stakes CEE transactions
Understand how political and regulatory shifts will impact your CEE operations—with scenario planning and early-warning indicators for the next 12-24 months.
Get a clear go or no-go decision before you spend EUR 150-300K on full due diligence—backed by euro-quantified risks and defensible intelligence.
Schedule a 30-minute consultation to discuss your specific situation and we'll recommend the right approach
Schedule Free Consultation"Around 56% of all mergers and acquisitions turn out to be failures..."
"The success of an M&A project depends to a large extent on optimal transaction preparation, fast transaction execution and the experience of the parties involved."
Deep experience across high-value sectors in Central & Eastern Europe
SaaS platforms, IT services, cybersecurity, fintech, software development
Automotive components, specialized equipment, industrial automation, chemicals
E-commerce, consumer brands, retail chains, FMCG, distribution networks
Private clinics, diagnostic services, med-tech devices, pharmaceutical distribution
Renewable energy, utilities, logistics infrastructure, smart grid technology
Professional services, business intelligence, staffing agencies, shared services
Working on a deal in a different sector? Let's discuss your specific situation →
CEE executives don't need more opinions. They need defensible intelligence.
You've hired a top consulting firm. Three months and €150,000 later, you get a beautiful deck. But when you ask "How confident are you in this recommendation?" they say "We're very confident"—without stating what that actually means.
They form a hypothesis early, then cherry-pick evidence to support it. You don't discover this until after you've closed the deal—and the forecasts don't materialize.
That market size estimate? It came from a single industry report. No one checked if the assumptions made sense for CEE. By the time you realize the market is 40% smaller, you've already committed capital.
When pressed, consultants can't explain why they're confident. Is it 60% likely? 85%? They don't know—because they never tested their assumptions against alternative scenarios.
Traditional firms rely on partner experience and brand reputation. That works for familiar markets and standard situations. But CEE deals are different— less transparent data, rapidly changing regulations, unreliable local sources. Experience isn't enough when the context keeps shifting.
What you need is a structured methodology that works regardless of how familiar the analyst is with the sector—one that systematically prevents the errors that kill deals.
For 20 years, I analyzed high-stakes situations where getting it wrong had severe consequences. The U.S. Intelligence Community developed systematic methods to prevent exactly these errors. We've adapted them for business decisions in CEE.
Before we use any piece of information, we classify it: Primary(direct access to facts), Credible (reputable but secondhand), or Requires Verification (needs corroboration). You see exactly how solid each conclusion is.
Instead of forming one hypothesis and defending it, we actively test 3-5 competing explanations. We only recommend one after systematically ruling out the alternatives. This forces us to confront disconfirming evidence instead of ignoring it.
When we say "Highly Likely," we mean 80-95% probability. "Likely" means 65-75%. These aren't feelings—they're calibrated estimates tied to how much contradictory evidence exists and how many scenarios we've ruled out.
Every report passes through 16 specific checks. Did we verify the target's top 3 customers independently? Did we test our market size estimate against two different methodologies? Did we identify the one assumption that, if wrong, invalidates our recommendation? Non-negotiable, regardless of deadline pressure.
Before finalizing any recommendation, we deliberately adopt the opposite position and try to build the strongest case against our own conclusion. If that case is weak, we're confident. If it's strong, we revise our assessment or lower our confidence.
Every claim in our reports links back to a specific source with its reliability rating. You can trace any conclusion to the underlying evidence. If your board challenges an assumption, you know exactly where it came from and how solid it is.
Traditional consulting gives you a recommendation backed by brand reputation. We give you transparent intelligence you can interrogate. You see exactly what we know, how we know it, and how confident we are. When your board asks "How do we know this is true?"—you have answers.
This is what intelligence-grade analysis means: Defensible conclusions based on rated evidence, with stated confidence levels—not consultant opinions dressed up as certainty.
Founded by former U.S. intelligence officer
Daniel Risk Intelligence brings together the rigor of U.S. Intelligence Community analysis with McKinsey-style business consulting. We help private equity and corporate investors make critical decisions with confidence.
Our methodology ensures every conclusion is backed by rated evidence, tested against contradictory information, and delivered with stated confidence levels. No business advice should be given without this level of validation.
Based in Virginia, with deep expertise across Central & Eastern European markets, we provide the intelligence-grade analysis needed for high-stakes investment decisions.
Founder
Over 20 years in intelligence analysis and risk assessment with deep CEE expertise. Master's in Strategic Intelligence from National Intelligence University, Washington D.C.
Extensive experience analyzing complex political, economic, and security environments across the Balkans, Baltics, and CEE. Specialized in translating intelligence methods into business applications—helping executives make confident decisions when information is incomplete.
Tell us about your situation and we'll respond within 48 hours
+1 757 287 7089 (WhatsApp)
Virginia
United States
We respond to all inquiries within 48 hours
Get clear answers about our intelligence-grade transaction analysis approach
Still have questions?
Schedule a Consultation